blackbeard
08-08-2012, 12:31 AM
Deer & Deer Hunting released Charles Alsheimer's 2012 Rut Forecast in the September 2012 issue. As most of you know I find Alsheimer's work to be very interesting and I follow it anxiously each year. For those of you who don't buy it and think the rut occurs at exactly the same time each year, this topic won't interest you. But for those of you who think that 16 years of study merits some consideration, here it is.
To set the stage, the "Rutting Moon" is considered to be the second full moon after the Autumnal Equinox (09/22/12). Not since 2004 has the first full moon after the Autumnal Equinox occurred in September (09/30/12). This means the "Rutting Moon" (second full moon) will be in October this year (10/29/12) and not November. This has happened only 4 times in the last 17 years (1995-2011)!
Therefore the "estimated" dates for the three main phases of the rut are:
Seeking 10/29/12-11/05/12
Chasing 11/02/12-11/09/12
Breeding 11/09/12-11/16/12
The phases always overlap somewhat as shown above. The first new moon after the rutting moon (11/13/12) always occurs during peak breeding as shown above.
Alsheimer says the "sweet spot" will be 11/03/12 to 11/12/12. The sweet spot is the magic week when deer activity is greatest. Most importantly he considers this year's rut to be a synchronized rut which means it will be an intense rut with peak breeding taking place before 11/15/12. So no trickle rut, which is good news for you rut hunters.
To set the stage, the "Rutting Moon" is considered to be the second full moon after the Autumnal Equinox (09/22/12). Not since 2004 has the first full moon after the Autumnal Equinox occurred in September (09/30/12). This means the "Rutting Moon" (second full moon) will be in October this year (10/29/12) and not November. This has happened only 4 times in the last 17 years (1995-2011)!
Therefore the "estimated" dates for the three main phases of the rut are:
Seeking 10/29/12-11/05/12
Chasing 11/02/12-11/09/12
Breeding 11/09/12-11/16/12
The phases always overlap somewhat as shown above. The first new moon after the rutting moon (11/13/12) always occurs during peak breeding as shown above.
Alsheimer says the "sweet spot" will be 11/03/12 to 11/12/12. The sweet spot is the magic week when deer activity is greatest. Most importantly he considers this year's rut to be a synchronized rut which means it will be an intense rut with peak breeding taking place before 11/15/12. So no trickle rut, which is good news for you rut hunters.